West Bengal election 2021 is in the air and everyone is keen to know about the result even before the result. Will Mamata be able to repeat her magic or Will BJP will turn the game upside down? The result will be announced on 2nd May but here we assume if the election were a football match and each major factor which are inclined to one party would be a goal. You will understand easily by scrolling down and find out who wins the match.
West Bengal has always been a prominent and important state whether it is independent India or British India. One of the first places in India where the British settled down and the flag bearer state to start the Indian renaissance. A state that will always be remembered for names like Subhash Chandra Bose, Rabindra Nath Tagore, Raja ram Mohan Roy, Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar, and countless others. Intellectually always flourishing state was initially ruled by the INC after independence. Bengal was also nurtured several left ideologies and accepted the administration of the Communist Party of India in 1977. People of Bengal showered all their love to the left party until a charismatic entry of Mamata Banerjee who broke the bastion of CPI and it's been two tenures and almost ten years since then she is invincible despite the Modi wave all over the nation. However, In the upcoming West Bengal election 2021 BJP has left no stone unturned to attempt the replay of Mamata Banerjee’s destructive performance that threw away the left’s rule.
The stage was being set for almost two years when BJP came again in power in center riding the Modi wave and now it is time for final execution and that will be a decisive result in Indian politics. It is quite clear that the election is majorly being fought between Trinamool Congress and BJP and this is going to be the toughest election for Mamata Banerjee. Congress-left alliance may play king-maker role in case of unclear majority and AIMIM may upset TMC’s applecart by alluring its Muslim voters but without any doubt, the next chief minister of West Bengal will either be Mamata Banerjee or someone from BJP. So let's talk about these two parties with 10 factors and try to get a sense of who is leading for what reasons. Now votings are to be held in 8 phases -that is also a matter of debate- from 27 March to 29 April. The voting result will come out on 2nd May. Here are 10 major factors that may decide the future of Bengal.
She factor:
Women are never counted separately as a major factor in Indian politics and that is a big point for discussion for women but they are always counted as silent voters. In the Bengal election, I think one must accept that women are important or maybe a decisive aspect. Mamata Banerjee has launched several schemes such as Kanyashree and Rupashree for women and girls’ welfare and it is not hard to believe that they have been voting for Mamata Banerjee. BJP has addressed the factor and that’s why Amit shah promised 33% reservation for women in govt. jobs if they win. There could be other election announcements for women's welfare by BJP but this women factor seems to be with Mamata in this election.
Score: TMC-1 BJP-0
Communalism and polarisation:
Almost every political party in India tries to capitalize on religious divides and allure, certain religious groups. Some parties like BJP have gained more advantage of increasing criminalization and polarisation within a community to get more Hindu votes. In West Bengal where the Muslim population is around 27% and some constituencies have nearly 50% of the Muslim population, it is clear that a divide in Hindu-Muslim votes may help Mamata and BJP equally so that the overall factor is null.
Score: TMC-1 BJP-1
The Modi-Mamata factor:
If BJP has Modi then TMC has Mamata both having the same image in their supporters and both have beautifully structured a saint-like persona in their supporters. The advantage of Modi being Prime-minister of India is also a disadvantage for him that he is not the face of the state. While Mamata’s advantage is that she is only and only for the state. Modi could bring another Yogi as he did in U.P. but U.P. had no Mamata Banerjee standing tall before Modi’s persona. So this factor is slightly but decisively goes in the favor of Mamata.
Score: TMC-1.5 BJP-1
Role of media:
You don't have to watch and observe TV and newspapers closely to sense the obsession of mainstream media towards the central govt. They have their set agendas to fix the image of govt. or generally, advertise for its policies. Now West Bengal is not a Hindi-speaking state in fact West Bengal has the least proportion of people who speaks Hindi. The regional newspaper and TV channels are preferred to watch and they are biased towards Mamata. However, some national news TV channels also have their Bangla centers but regional language speakers in any state prefer regional TV channels. So no matter how loudly Hindi-English mainstream news channels speak in favor of Modi regional TV channels will win here. However, when it comes to the internet Amit Malviya-led IT cell may have way more impact than TMC or any other party in India. So this factor will also get nullified.
Score: TMC-1 BJP-1
Party organization:
BJP is known to be a completely organized party from top to bottom with the help of the micro-presence of RSS in almost every part of the country. However, in West Bengal TMC may prove to be far more structured than RSS or BJP. TMC has its advantage of being a well-structured regional party. From door-to-door campaigning to booth level management TMC is ahead of its rivals, so this factor goes with TMC.
Score: TMC-1.5 BJP-1
Immigrants:
West Bengal has always been an easy shelter for Bangladeshi and in recent times Rohingya Muslims. BJP tried to strengthen its image of the Hindu-nationalist party by passing the CAA-NRC laws and has been pretty vocal about throwing away illegal Bangladeshi from India. Though I am not sure if the government. has clear data of the number of Bangladeshi or other illegal immigrants in India. There are some communities like the Matua community that hopes to get Indian citizenship through the citizenship amendment act. People in Assam and other states protested against this law but the people of West Bengal seem to have either been unaffected or in support of it. So BJP may take advantage of this factor in the election.
Score: TMC-0 BJP-1
Farmers agitation:
several farmers' leaders including Rakesh Tikait have landed in Bengal. Officially they are seen to appeal for voting against BJP and not taking any clear stand in favor of any party but there are enough indicators suggesting they are supporting TMC to keep BJP away from winning the election. However, farmer agitation doesn't seem to haunt BJP as they have successfully handled it. So Bengal will not be much affected by the presence of farmers' leaders in Bengal. So this factor will be neutral.
Score: TMC-0 BJP-0
Anti-incumbency:
Mamata Banerjee has enjoyed chief ministership of the state for two tenures and in this period of time West Bengal is not like having a kind of golden period or something. In fact, corruption and violence have been making the news in these times. The Sharda chit fund scam got nationwide coverage and maligned the image of TMC. Also, West Bengal has not witnessed a boost in development projects. However, the state is already doing great in several socio-economic indexes but this factor may work against the TMC.
Score: TMC-0 BJP-1
Local identity:
The old famous slogan of TMC “Ma Mati Manush” still works and it relates Mamata Banerjee to the local Bengali people. BJP is still fighting to remove the outsider tag and it doesn't seem to be removed even at this time. BJP has surely infiltrated some of the key local leaders of BJP such as Mukul Roy and Sudhendu Adhikari and RSS also worked quite hard for years to bring new and strong local leaders but that is simply not enough. The connection of Mamata Banerjee is the same as the Modi with people of Gujarat or vice versa. So this factor clearly goes to TMC.
Score: TMC-1 BJP-0
A clean and consistent image of Mamata:
Undoubtedly there has been some corruption and allegation of corruption during the TMC rule but no matter how hard BJP tried they could not get anything against Mamata. They couldn't even find any allegation of corruption or misuse of power. On the other hand, BJP has no face for the chief minister to show it to the people. All they have is Narendra Modi but Modi is not fighting for the election against Mamata. BJP and Mamata should have presented a face for CM candidate as good and clean as Mamata Banerjee but they just simply can't. So this factor also goes to TMC.
Score: TMC- 1 BJP-0
Final score : TMC-8 BJP-6
That means based on 10 key factors that are prominent in this election BJP lost however it contested pretty well. So in my opinion. BJP has set a good game but they are just a way to win it at least this time. Anyway, better luck next time.
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