Is China a threat to the world or the fear only created by the US?

 Several media reports suggest that China is emerging as a threat to the world culturally, politically, militarily and economically. They mention the recent tactical advances of China and robust economic expansion in other countries. It is true that China has outperformed the US in many ways and strengthened its grip on the globe. Now we have a few questions here. Will the robust expansion of China trample the small countries? Is China a threat to the world? Or the fear of China is only created by the US to remain the only leader of the world? Let's analyze and try to find these answers. 

Within decades China has managed to put itself in the front line of the world’s nations order in terms of economy, military, technology, and development. China also has an advanced and competitive space program that has been launching missions continuously and successfully into space. China has a large military power no weaker than the USA. It has trade deals with several nations and under the BRI(Belt and Road Initiative) it has distributed resources and loans to developing nations. It is the largest exporter in the world, way ahead of the second ranked USA. Many countries are becoming dependent on China economically and politically. 

The USA has been crowned as the unofficial leader of the world since the beginning of the 20th century. The USSR could not dethrone it even after several years of cold war. Now another socialist communist country has become a major threat to the throne of the US. Now it is a point of discussion if China is a threat to the US only or to the whole world. To improve its position in the world order, China entered several developing nations through trade routes and offered them money and technology to build infrastructure there. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, many African nations, and a few European countries as well have partnered with China in these terms. Now it also needs discussion if these countries are getting better or drowning deep in increasing debt or compromising their sovereignty with China. 

China has bettered its position globally by improving its economy and utilizing its resources to the maximum extent. A great manpower helped the country to become a major manufacturing hub among all developed nations. Great innovations and technology from pharma, communication to the auto sector helped the nation to deliver cheaper products to the world and that shifted it to the top position among the world’s largest exporters. Now it is almost exporting twice as much as the US. Apart from the exports and economy, rapidly increasing military power and tactical advances and aggressive political structure seems to possess a threat to the world as projected in western media. So we will discuss the threat of China if it is true by analyzing three points: economically, militarily and politically. 

Tactical and military advances of China:

There have been concerns expressed by Indian media over China’s expansion in and around the Indian ocean. Sri Lanka has been talking with China for years and agreed to allow them to construct and operate the Hambantota port where the presence of Chinese military officials is routine. They have engaged in training and providing aid to the Sri Lankan military. They also have distributed 10s of billions of dollars as loans to Sri Lanka. Similar support has been provided to Myanmar militarily and financially. With the support of these two countries China can roam easily across the Indian Ocean with its warships and that may cause concerns for its rival India. China also seems to have clashed with Japan over an Island called Senkaku in the Japanese and Diaoyu or Tiaoyutai in China. To gain a superior position in the matter, China is seen expanding over the South China sea. 

In 2013 China established its first and only military base in Djibouti which is a strategically important country located on the Horn of Africa. Since then China has increased its military presence in the country which has been seen as a concern and reported multiple times by the western media.

Now looking at these few examples one may say that China seems eager to increase its military presence over the world but that is not correct. For comparison, the USA has around 800 military bases in around 70 countries while China has only one in Djibouti. In past years, how many times have you seen China engaged within a country with its military for any purpose? None! And how many countries have been invaded by the USA in the past 50 years? Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc. are quite known examples. 

Now the point is every big country wants to have tactical alliances with other countries and establish its military bases in small countries for their safety and stability. But the USA and other western countries present a demonizing picture of China saying that it is planning to invade countries to become powerful. Actually, the USA has done this throughout its independent history to become the chief of the world. Some reports like this one (click) were published in the guardian expressing US concerns over China’s future planning to build multiple military bases around the world. The US seems quite afraid of China thus it wants to create an artificial fear of China in the world. But the US has failed to see that China is not willing to engage in any direct military combat with any country as we have seen recent examples where they avoided the military escalation over the border dispute. By far their strategy seems to dominate the world economically not militarily.

The political structure of China:

China is a socialist communist republic and has a different political structure than other countries. China is not a one-party system and in reality, there are 5 to 6 parties contesting elections. However, one party, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) dominates and almost all other parties accept its leadership. These small parties contest legislative elections to send their people to the Chinese Congress where all elected members choose the head of the state. Xi Jinping was chosen by the congressmen in 2013 and in 2018 he was again chosen as the president. The presidential term is limited to 5 years so Jinping will complete his second term in 2023. Earlier it was allowed only two terms for a president like US but recently the legislature has changed for Xi Jinping and now he can contest for the presidential post again in 2023 and if chosen he would become again the president of China for another 5 years. Seeing the dominance of the Chinese Comuunist party and Jinping, it is likely that he would be the President of China for at least 2028.

Many people think that China is an authoritarian and dictatorship country and has no democracy but that is not true. It has a different political system than the US with an active electoral system to elect congressmen. However, the core of the Chinese political system is to believe that if the transfer of power happens quite rapidly among leaders and parties then the system becomes ineffective and the government can not work with a long-term vision. 

Unlike the USSR China has never been seen as a promoter of the socialist communist governmental system to the world however it has brutally opposed the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. So it could not be a threat to the democracy practiced by other countries. You may never see a socialist movement run by the Chinese government in other countries as happened during the Cold War by the USSR. 

Economic expansion of China:

Not more than a few decades ago China was nothing different than a typical Asian country with poor infrastructure and poor people. Before 1978 four out of five Chinese were working in agriculture but in 1999 only one in two were in the fields. That’s not because agricultural lands shrank but due to the agri reforms and use of technology fewer people were required to work in the fields and could produce even more. The extra manpower was efficiently used in manufacturing, mining, and other industrial sectors which surprisingly increased the productivity of the country. Some economic reforms were also practiced by the Chinese government after 1978 including less government interference in pricing and over control of the companies. Government still supervises the companies and industries but with only one main purpose to encourage them to produce more and more. 

The Chinese economy was quite weak before 1978 and was growing at almost 7 percent with ups and downs. In the past 15 years, the economy has grown by 9 percent with some peak years of even 13 percent. That robust growth rocketed the country’s position among nations from the bottom to the top. IMF research says that in 20 years the Chinese economy will become far larger than the US. And that is what concerns the US. 

Within a decade China has shown the world a robust economic performance. It is the top exporter of the world, way ahead of every developed nation. Recently the US started banning Chinese products and some companies as well but before that China was exporting a large volume of products to the US. Currently many asian countries and the EU are the biggest partners in trade. 

In 2013 the Chinese government approved a gigantic international program named the Belt and Road Initiative or BRI. In this program China is to invest in around 70 countries for developing infrastructure to connect them with each other and China. Under the BRI program, China has distributed financial aid to many Asian and African countries. For example, In Africa, Angola has the largest Chinese debt of around $25bn. Some other countries in Africa also have large debts such as Ethiopia ($13.5bn), Zambia ($4.7bn), the Republic of Congo ($7.4bn), and Sudan ($6.4bn). Some Asian countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka have actively been receiving Chinese support for developing infrastructure such as highways, dams, bridges and ports. 

Now, many media reports express their concerns over Chinese debt granted to poor countries that leads them into a never-ending debt trap. That point is not correct in my opinion. Some global financial institutions such as the IMF or World Bank and others are always ready to grant huge loans to the weaker economies from which they could never recover. These kinds of loans are passive loans and are only meant to collect more and more interest rates with some additional favors for companies who funded these loans. On the other hand, the BRI program under which China grants financial aid is of an active nature. Of Course, Chinese are not doing social work and they have their own interest which is to make more partners and create a huge connected market. They actively provide resources and technology to boost their infrastructure which was never going to happen with IMF or World Bank’s loans. 

There are, however, few examples where corrupt governments in African or Asian countries prevent them from utilizing the full potential of the initiative. The challenges of corruption are not going to end any sooner and it is up to the citizens of these countries to establish good governance. 

There are some genuine concerns over cultural damages of local ethnicity mixing up with dominating Chinese. The cultural transformation however is inevitable and has always been happening every time markets get connected more closely. Yet there is no evidence of forced imposition of Chinese culture over any local rituals or traditions. During the period of colonial rule, the cultures and traditional values of many countries have shifted and changed permanently. In that period ruling countries such as Britain, Spain, German or Dutch forced local people to adopt western ways of living. Although many have accepted it willingly, we see the extinction of some age-old cultures and traditions. Considering these arguments, on what ground western media blames the BRI initiative for the forced imposition of Chinese culture on others. 

Conclusion:

There is a complex narrative presented by the USA and its friendly countries and media organizations suggesting smooth capture of the world by China. The fear of military advances by the Chinese government has been shown in multiple media reports. They demonize any initiative launched by China. Although it is not untrue that China wants to dominate the world and wants to become a superpower from Earth to space, the methods are different from Western countries like the US and are quite inclusive as well. 

World has already seen many deadly wars in which the US and other western nations were actively engaged. Those wars have pushed several Asian countries to the brink of collapse and in the same period, the US grew and kept growing. Now they are threatened by the robust expansion of China to outclass them in every field. The expansion however is inclusive and less deadly because Chinese policies seem not to engage in active war in or with any country at least for now. As far as the economic activities and initiatives are concerned I would say it is an opportunity for Asian and African countries to get connected through trade and open their markets to each other for collective growth. They should not only buy products of giant Western companies but also develop their own industries. BRI and trade with China can help them strengthen their economy and then they can also dream of their own global economic expansion.